STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Let's go to South America now. Venezuela begins another day with two presidents. As we've been reporting, the leader of Venezuela's legislature, Juan Guaido, says he is president under the constitution, replacing Nicolas Maduro. But the president who kept office through a disputed election still has the military on his side and is going nowhere. John Otis reports.
JOHN OTIS, BYLINE: The U.S. and a growing list of foreign governments now consider Juan Guaido to be Venezuela's new president.
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UNIDENTIFIED CROWD: (Cheering).
OTIS: Guaido, who had been the head of congress, took the oath of office Wednesday before a huge crowd of supporters, who also called on Maduro to step down. Maduro has led Venezuela into hyperinflation and food shortages but was sworn in for another six-year term this month after an election widely considered a sham.
The opposition claims that backing from the military is the only reason why Maduro is still in power. And they are betting that the emergence of Guaido will erode this support. So far, they've been disappointed.
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VLADIMIR PADRINO: (Speaking Spanish).
OTIS: Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino declared that the armed forces would continue to back Maduro as the country's legitimate president.
BRUCE BAGLEY: It is my opinion that, at least through 2019, we are going to see Maduro remain in power backed by the military, which is the crucial element here.
OTIS: That's Bruce Bagley, a Venezuela scholar at the University of Miami. He says the military has often served as Venezuela's ultimate power broker. The late socialist leader Hugo Chavez gave vast powers to military officials, a trend that has accelerated under Maduro. Today, officials run everything from food distribution to the vital oil industry. Critics contend that some officers make millions through drug trafficking and other shady deals.
EVAN ELLIS: There were a ton of industries where military officers had opportunity to make money.
OTIS: That's Evan Ellis, a professor at the U.S. Army War College. He says that many officers stick by Maduro because they fear prison or extradition for their crimes should the opposition take power. Rather than pushing for a traditional coup, the opposition could lobby officers to simply stay in the barracks and allow street protests against Maduro to build. So says Frank Mora, who heads the Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University.
FRANK MORA: The opposition has to give them a reason to at least withdraw support from the government, which, in a sense, is a coup d'etat.
OTIS: One carrot now being offered to the military is amnesty. As Ellis points out, Guaido is promising to pardon officers who abandon Maduro and join the opposition.
ELLIS: For the military, especially the amnesty, it lets you say, hey, if I lead the unit that goes over to the other side, I will get to keep my stolen money. And all the things that I've done will be cleansed. And I emerge as the democratic hero.
OTIS: So far, however, there have been few cracks in military solidarity. Counterintelligence agents have reportedly squashed several rebellions before they could even be launched. That's why in Venezuela's battle of the presidents, analysts say that Maduro continues to hold the upper hand. For NPR News, I'm John Otis.
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