STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Swedish authorities have spent a lot of time thinking about a target of military surveillance. They were tracking a foreign submarine a few months ago. And that submarine got away. Russia is the main suspect. As Russia's military becomes more aggressive, European leaders fear they do not have the military power to deal with this new threat. NPR's Ari Shapiro reports from Stockholm.
ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
Karlis Neretnieks used to run the Sweden's National Defense College. He's had a long career in the military. We're sitting down to coffee at a hotel in Stockholm, when suddenly he runs up the stairs with a shout.
KARLIS NERETNIEKS: You, there.
SHAPIRO: He's standing wide-eyed in front of a conference room.
NERETNIEKS: I recognize it because the last thing the navy had on this island was the naval officers' mess.
SHAPIRO: What does this word mean above the door?
NERETNIEKS: Naval officers' mess.
SHAPIRO: Now it's a conference room in a luxury hotel. Stockholm is a city of islands. And this island in the center of town was the seat of Swedish naval power for 500 years. Walking outside, Neretnieks explains those days of military might are gone.
NERETNIEKS: The army has been reduced by 90 percent. The navy has been scaled down by some 80 percent and the air force some 70 percent.
SHAPIRO: After the Cold War, Sweden and the rest of the continent believed they had entered an era of European peace and unity. Lately, Russia has proven them wrong, and not only by seizing part of Ukraine. Last month, a Russian military aircraft flying in stealth nearly crashed into a commercial passenger plane taking off from Copenhagen. In April, Russian fighter jets carried out a simulated bombing raid on Stockholm. And nobody seems able to do anything about it.
ADMIRAL JAN THORNQUIST: The situation around us has dramatically changed in a very negative way.
SHAPIRO: Admiral Jan Thornquist is chief of staff for the Swedish navy. He worries that with tensions this high, a small slip-up could turn into an international crisis.
THORNQUIST: Perhaps if you're doing an exercise close to a border - another country - you can easily pass that border by mistake. For example, you point out another ship with a radar system or something, and that could easily be interpreted there's a threat.
SHAPIRO: Suddenly, armed conflict in northern Europe seems plausible, and this region is not prepared. Sweden is trying to find foreign submarines in its waters, even though the country retired its last submarine-hunting helicopter in 2008. Jan Solesund is the secretary of state for Sweden's Ministry of Defense.
JAN SOLESUND: And not only Sweden. I mean, Europe as a whole, of course, downsized their forces. We tend to forget that things can change quicker than we thought.
SHAPIRO: Now thanks to Russia, many European countries, including Sweden, are talking about rebuilding the military. Defense Minister Solesund says it's hard to overstate what a huge change that is.
SOLESUND: I've been in the armed forces since the early '70s, and I have only experienced reductions.
SHAPIRO: But many analysts fear it won't be enough. Keir Giles is a military expert at the Chatham House think tank in London.
KEIR GILES: Right now, yes, most European leaders do appreciate the scale of the problem. But European leaders come and go. And Russia benefits from a continuity of leadership and also from strategic patience which none of its adversaries can match.
SHAPIRO: Just look at Russia's latest budget. Even with the ruble at its lowest point in years, President Putin announced last month that he is increasing the military's already huge budget by a third. Ari Shapiro, NPR News.