"Under Pressure, Al\u2011Qaida Reaches Out To Affiliates"

STEVE INSKEEP, Host:

It's MORNING EDITION from NPR News. Good morning. I'm Steve Inskeep. Renee Montagne is away this week. And I'm delighted that NPR's Deborah Amos is sitting in. Deborah, good morning.

DEBORAH AMOS, Host:

We have two scenes this morning from the war on terrorism. We'll report on terror suspects who were caught and one double agent who succeeded.

INSKEEP: In a moment, we will hear details about the bomber who killed seven members of the CIA in Afghanistan. First, we're going to look at the large number of recent terrorism cases in the United States.

AMOS: NPR's Dina Temple-Raston explains why this seems to be happening now.

DINA TEMPLE: Samuel Rascoff is the counterterrorism expert at New York University Law School. He's been tracking how the U.S. drone offensive has forced al-Qaida to shift its strategy.

SAMUEL RASCOFF: What that's done is it's caused the franchise organizations in North Africa, in Yemen, and indeed around the world to come to the fore and to really represent the most significant threat that al-Qaida posses today, I think.

TEMPLE: Now experts say al-Qaida is going through another phase. This one is much like 2002. Rascoff says the drone attacks have robbed al-Qaida of a comfortable sanctuary. So it's turned again to affiliates, and that's part of the reason why he says we're seeing more terrorism cases in the U.S.

RASCOFF: The uptick in this smaller-type cells that we've been picking up in the States and overseas I think is a clear indication that al-Qaida is pursuing this franchise strategy.

TEMPLE: Does it mean al-Qaida's on the ropes?

RASCOFF: Well, the good news is that means that al-Qaida, as a headquarters organization, perceives itself to be limited and what it can do. The bad news is as a franchise, they're actually quite devastating in what they can pull off.

TEMPLE: The latest evidence: the Christmas Day Airliner bombing, which was organized by al-Qaida's arm in Yemen. Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University, says al-Qaida has learned from its 2002 experience. Now, core al-Qaida is not just asking affiliates to pick up the slack. It's actually sending some of it's most trusted and skilled operatives to help these groups train them.

BRUCE HOFFMAN: In essence, it's forced multipliers to plus-up or to strengthen or to enhance the capabilities of its local and regional allies, and thus attempt to overwhelm the United States and its other enemies with, in essence, a strategy that amounts to death by a thousand cuts.

TEMPLE: More than two dozen Somali-Americans have left Minneapolis over the past two years to join a terrorist group in Somalia. Hoffman said the U.S. was naive to think that it was immune to al-Qaida's attempts to recruit new members, whether on the ground or through the Internet.

HOFFMAN: It's a reflection of a conscious strategy on the part of al- Qaida to use their propaganda or to use the Internet and other means of communication in order to gain a toehold on the United States.

TEMPLE: Dina Temple-Raston, NPR News, New York.