MADELEINE BRAND, Host:
News of Christopher Dodd's retirement has one effect in the Senate and possibly another in this fall's elections.
STEVE INSKEEP, Host:
Here's the way political analysts might think through a development like this: okay, Dodd was an incumbent and incumbents tend to have many advantages. So, in theory, Madeleine, that's bad for Democrats trying to keep his seat.
BRAND: But he was unpopular incumbent and it's a Democratic-leaning state, so there is a good chance a different Democrat can hold the seat for the party.
INSKEEP: This is one of many elections that will affect the Senate's balance of power, and NPR News analyst Juan Williams has been watching them. He's on the line once again. Juan, good morning.
JUAN WILLIAMS: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: Let's remember what's at stake here: the Democrats have a big advantage in the Senate - 60 out of 100 senators, if you count two Independents that vote with them most of the time. What's it mean though if Democrats were just to lose a seat or two or three?
WILLIAMS: All of that would have to be forced in this season right before the November election to say it's something that the Democrats can do and prevent the Republicans from filibustering or blocking that legislative movement.
INSKEEP: Now, I suppose time could be even shorter than we think here, because most of these elections are in the fall. The Democrats have the 60 for year in theory, but there's a test on January 19 - a special election for a vacant Senate seat in Massachusetts.
WILLIAMS: You know, political analysts right now are saying they could win 20 to 30 seats in the House. They could, as we've just said, end the filibuster-proof 60 in the Senate.
INSKEEP: Well, let's talk a little bit more about the Senate here. We mentioned Christopher Dodd - he's retiring. Democrats would seem to have a good chance at least to hold onto that seat, but there was another retirement in North Dakota where it's a bit of a redder state.
WILLIAMS: But that seat, as you said, is likely to go to the Republicans. Democrats in Connecticut, though, are probably, you know, not too sorry about Dodd going. Dodd's a great guy - don't mistake me - but the attorney general, Richard Blumenthal, there, is very popular and he may be a stronger Democratic candidate versus the Republican contenders - Rob Simmons and Linda McMahon.
INSKEEP: And let's just remember here: if Republicans, Juan, as you say, can just gain one seat or two or three, say, that that would give them a lot more power in the Senate. The Democrats seem to be vulnerable to lose some, but the Democrats have a chance to win some as well because Republicans have six senators retiring.
WILLIAMS: So, Republicans are on the defensive too.
INSKEEP: And in a couple of seconds here, what about incumbents who are facing challenges?
WILLIAMS: Well, you start with the two Democrats - Gillibrand in New York; Michael Bennett in Colorado - so, at least, you know, possibly primary challenges. A lot going on there - Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania as well.
INSKEEP: Some of the calculations that may affect the results of the 2010 elections from NPR News analyst Juan Williams. Juan, thanks very much.
WILLIAMS: You're welcome, Steve.
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