STEVE INSKEEP, host:
It's MORNING EDITION from NPR News. Good morning. I'm Steve Inskeep.
RENEE MONTAGNE, host:
I'm Renee Montagne.
And this is Senator John McCain, the winner of Florida's Republican primary.
Senator JOHN McCAIN (Republican, Arizona; Presidential Candidate): My friends, in one week, in one week we will have as close to a national primary as we've ever had in this country. I intend to win it and be the nominee of our party.
(Soundbite of crowd cheering)
MONTAGNE: As of this morning, John McCain has an excellent shot at doing just that, now that he has won Florida's primary. McCain took 36 percent of the vote, putting his chief rival, Mitt Romney, in second place with 31 percent. Rudy Giuliani came in a distant third and this a candidate who staked his campaign on winning Florida.
Joining us now is Republican political consultant Mike Murphy. He has run campaigns for both McCain and Romney. And he's a regular guest on this program.
Good morning.
Mr. MIKE MURPHY (Republican Political Consultant; Founding Principal and Member, Executive Committee of Navigators): Good morning.
MONTAGNE: So Senator McCain can finally claim the title of front-runner?
Mr. MURPHY: Yes, yeah. He can, indeed. And I think he will, but he'll be a little shy about it because he's still a guy who carries a lucky penny and rabbit's foot around, and doesn't want to count his chickens before they're hatched. But no doubt, winning in Florida, very hard-fought battle in a very big, important state was a big victory for John McCain. It gives him a lot of momentum into the Super Duper Tuesday race coming in a week in all those states across the country.
MONTAGNE: Governor Romney also fought hard for Florida and he came up short. What are his chances of a comeback in, well, as you call it, Super Duper Tuesday - Super Tuesday contest next Tuesday?
Mr. MURPHY: Well, Governor Romney, you know, fought hard. He started at about 6 percent, not nearly as well known, and came up a little short, about five points. So now the question is, how do they approach Super Tuesday? I think there are some states where he's still operative. He was a bit defiant last night to his supporters about continuing, and I think he's earned that right. But it's an uphill battle for him, no doubt about it. I think they'll target a couple of states. They may win them. But I think after February 5th, when we've had those - that big wave of states' vote, you know, the delegate math is the cold heart truth of this business and we will see what happens.
I think reports are probably quite accurate that Rudy Giuliani is leaving the race to endorse Senator McCain and a very big bloc of delegates in New York, Connecticut, Delaware and New Jersey are up for grabs on the 5th. I think McCain will start out with a strong position in those states, and then work his way west into the Illinois and Missouris, Tennessees and Georgias, and culminating at the end in California where Romney might make his final focus. So I think Romney is still in the battle. He has a lot of resources, but he's definitely an underdog now. And McCain, after last night, has the upper hand.
MONTAGNE: A tough night for Rudy Giuliani. Not so long ago, he stood at the top of the national polls.
Mr. MURPHY: He did. There was a time when people called him front-runner, and he had a very rough night. Even the big southern Florida counties like Brevard(ph), Broward - excuse me - the Fort Lauderdale area, Miami-Dade, where Rudy Giuliani had done well in the past and were, kind of, the base of his very Florida-centric campaign. He having said that Florida was his final place where he was going to make his last stand and win. Even those counties, he was beaten handedly by John McCain, so it was a meltdown.
And I think, in retrospect, the mayor is a very capable candidate who may not have had a particularly capable campaign and particularly not a very good strategy, that of waiting until the end and not really competing. So he was already, kind of, damage goods in the world of politics, having lost so many early contests. That's a strategy that a few campaigns have tried in the past that almost always fails, and I think those who planned that strategy for the Giuliani campaign would have been well advised to have studied their political history a little more before embarking on it.
MONTAGNE: Well, just briefly, any - beyond the strategy, was it - were his ideas problematic there in Florida?
Mr. MURPHY: Well, I think, you know, Rudy might have had a problem in the primary world with some of the conservatives of the Republican Party because he had more moderate positions on social issues. But I think, you know, he had that early burst of support. He was very impressive to a lot of Republicans and still is, which is why he's such a valuable endorsement. But it just never caught fire. I think the Kerry problems and some of the negative media he got, combined with the bad strategy and sometimes it looked like he wasn't all that committed to giving it the full Rudy-Giuliani-top-of-his-game effort all combined has put his campaign in a bad place that they never got out of.
MONTAGNE: Mike, thanks for joining us.
Mr. MURPHY: Thank you.
MONTAGNE: Mike Murphy is a Republican political consultant. He joined us on the line from Tampa, Florida.