RENEE MONTAGNE, host:
This is MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Renee Montagne.
LYNN NEARY, host:
And I'm Lynn Neary, in for Steve Inskeep.
The rituals were all familiar last night at the United States Capitol.
Mr. WILSON LIVINGOOD (Sergeant at Arms of the United States House of Representatives): Madame Speaker, the president of the United States.
(Soundbite of applause)
NEARY: Despite the constancy of tradition, the mood changes when a president gives his final State of the Union Address. President Reagan, almost 20 years ago, protested that, quote, "We're still on the job."
MONTAGNE: President Bush is still on the job. And last night, he was looking to grab a little attention from the candidates looking to succeed him in the White House. We've gathered together a handful of NPR reporters who paid very close attention to what the president had to say, and whether he strayed at all from the facts. And we'll start our review of last night's State of the Union Address where President Bush started - with the economy.
NPR's John Ydstie joins us. And John, the president started by talking about the bipartisan plan to jump-start the economy, and he warned that it could get derailed if Congress tried to change it.
President GEORGE W. BUSH: This is a good agreement that will keep our economy growing and our people working. And this Congress must pass it as soon as possible.
(Soundbite of applause)
MONTAGNE: And John, is this a good package for the economy?
JOHN YDSTIE: Well, we won't know. Historically, these stimulus packages usually come too late, after a recession is over, and that very well could happen with this one because the checks aren't going to get out until midsummer or so. Ironically, the Senate, which is trying to tinker with the package, might actually improve it because it is trying to include the extension of unemployment benefits for 13 weeks. And that money could get to people right away and actually help - this stimulate the economy.
MONTAGNE: And the president quickly pivoted from the stimulus package to something close to his heart: making permanent his tax cuts.
Pres. BUSH: Some in Washington argue that letting tax relief expire is not a tax increase. Try explaining that to 116 million American taxpayers who would see their taxes rise by an average of $1,800.
MONTAGNE: John, what about that average of $1,800?
YDSTIE: Well, that average is misleading. As we know, the Bush tax cuts were weighted heavily toward the wealthy; they benefited most from them. So if they're not extended, the wealthy are likely to be hurt most. Some figures from the Citizens for Tax Justice suggest that over the 10 years of the Bush tax cuts, people at the top one percent are going to get about $30,000 on average per year, while people in the middle-income brackets get just $550 or so. So that $1,800 average really is quite meaningless.
MONTAGNE: John, thanks much. That's NPR's John Ydstie.
Now, the economy has become the top issue in the presidential campaign, but another big domestic issue is health care. Candidates have their plans, and last night, the president had his own offering.
(Soundbite of applause)
Pres. BUSH: So I have proposed ending the bias in the tax code against those who do not get their health insurance through their employer. This one reform would put private coverage within reach for millions, and I call on the Congress to pass it this year.
(Soundbite of applause)
MONTAGNE: Julie Rovner covers health care for NPR. And Julie, is the president right? This one reform would do this much?
JULIE ROVNER: Yes and no. The president's right that it would put health care within reach for millions, but that would only make a very small dent in the problem of the uninsured. Right now, if you get your health care at work, you don't pay taxes on the value of that health insurance. If you buy your own health insurance, you don't get any tax benefit. So the president would like to change that and give everybody a tax deduction.
The problem is, most of the people who don't have insurance don't pay any taxes, so a tax deduction won't really make it any less expensive for them to buy their own insurance. So even the most ambitious estimate says that only about 9 million of the 47 million uninsured people would get health insurance under the president's plan - which is, indeed, millions of people, but doesn't really go towards solving the problem - a main reason why Congress didn't take up this proposal last year when the president first offered it.
MONTAGNE: That's NPR's Julie Rovner.
Now, if the president is remembered for any domestic initiative, it would be his education plan: No Child Left Behind.
Pres. BUSH: Last year, fourth and eighth graders achieved the highest math scores on record. Reading scores are on the rise. African-American and Hispanic students posted all-time highs.
MONTAGNE: The president claiming that No Child Left Behind is succeeding. And Larry Abramson, you cover education, is the president right?
LARRY ABRAMSON: Well, there have been some improvements in test scores, Renee, particularly in the math area. The president can point to those scores going up, but he can't say that No Child Left Behind did it because a lot of other efforts have been under way. The states have been pushing higher standards for over a decade.
A lot of people say that those state efforts really were - had much more to do with that. And a lot of these improvements are really miniscule, Renee. Many people think that these scores should have gone up much more quickly, and they point to the fact that the achievement gap between white and minority students is still enormous. It's still two grade levels in many areas.
MONTAGNE: Although that gap is narrowing.
ABRAMSON: It's narrowing a little bit. But particularly for Hispanic students, they are still just as far behind as they were 10 or 15 years ago.
MONTAGNE: NPR's Larry Abramson.
And last year in his State of the Union speech, President Bush acknowledged climate change as a major issue.
Christopher Joyce covers science for NPR.
And, Chris, there was big applause last evening when the president said he wanted to, quote, "complete an international agreement designed to slow the growth of greenhouse gases." What was he referring to?
CHRISTOPHER JOYCE: Both sides of the aisle stood up. Everybody was very happy. But that's a good question, though, because there is already an international agreement. It's the Kyoto Protocol. It's been in effect for a couple of years and goes through 2012. It's also the international agreement that the United States is not part of, and all the rest of the industrialized world is.
What the president is actually talking about is his own parallel process - he's initiated last year, something called the Major Economies Initiative. And it's an effort to get China and India - countries that emit lots of greenhouse gases but are not part of the Kyoto Protocol - into some of sort of system, a voluntary one. But the rest of the world considers it rather too little and too late.
MONTAGNE: That's NPR's Christopher Joyce.
We've spent a lot of time talking about domestic issues just now, but the president did spend a lot of time talking about an area that will define his presidency - the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman was listening to the speech. And here we're going to hear the president talking about the war in Afghanistan.
Pres. BUSH: A nation that was once a safe haven for al-Qaeda is now a young democracy where boys and girls are going to school. New roads and hospitals are being built, and people are looking to the future with new hope.
MONTAGNE: Now, there are certainly new roads and more schools, but those schools are also being burned down - hundreds just this last year. Is this picture too rosy, Tom?
TOM BOWMAN: Well, there are also more attacks, Renee. Back in 2006, they -average of more than 400 attacks per month. In 2007, more than 500 attacks per month. So, there's a real concern about a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan. And at the same time, NATO has gone somewhat wobbly on Afghanistan. Defense Secretary Gates wanted them to send in more than 7,000 more troops, and they've refused.
MONTAGNE: The president also had very positive words for Iraq.
Pres. BUSH: Ladies and gentlemen, some may deny the surge is working, but among the terrorists, there is no doubt. Al-Qaeda is on the run in Iraq, and this enemy will be defeated.
(Soundbite of applause)
BOWMAN: Well, al-Qaeda is definitely a threat in Iraq. There is no question about it. But perhaps a bigger threat is the lack of reconciliation between the Sunni and the Shiites. There's been very little movement on reconciliation over the past several years. No oil law. No provincial elections. And they have a lot of work to do.
MONTAGNE: The president had a few numbers - 80,000 Iraqi citizens fighting the terrorists, as he put it. A hundred thousand new Iraqi soldiers and police have been added over the last year.
BOWMAN: Well, the key question is, when can the Iraqis take over security on their own? And the Iraqi defense minister has estimated that for internal security, it will be 2009 to 2012 before they are able to take over. But as far as external threats to the country, he's looking as long as 12 years before they can handle that security job on their own.
MONTAGNE: NPR's Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman.
We've been reviewing the speech President Bush gave last night. This was Mr. Bush's last State of the Union address and the first time his twin daughters came to watch him deliver it. Next time, the speech will be given by a new president.
And if you missed some of what our reporters had to say about fact-checking the State of the Union address, you can read their full analysis at npr.org.
You're listening to MORNING EDITION from NPR News.