"Breaking Down the Women's Vote"

LYNN NEARY, host:

This is MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Lynn Neary.

RENEE MONTAGNE, host:

And I'm Renee Montagne.

Presidential candidates, both Republican and Democratic, are hoping to win support from the entire electorate. But there are some groups of voters that can make or break a presidential bid. This week we're examining some of them. Yesterday we heard a conversation about Latino voters. Today we turn to women.

NEARY: With me in the studio is Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners, a prominent Democratic polling firm. She's also co-author of the book "What Women Really Want."

And with us on the phone from her home in Fort Worth, Texas is Republican Congresswoman Kay Granger. Representative Granger is the most senior Republican woman in the House of Representatives and the co-leader of an organization called Women Impacting the Nation, which is working to bring more women into the Republican Party.

Welcome to both of you. Thanks for being with us.

Ms. CELINDA LAKE (Co-Author, "What Women Really Want"): Thank you.

Representative KAY GRANGER (Republican, Texas): Thank you for having us. Glad to be with you.

NEARY: First of all, are some issues more important to women in the two different parties? Celinda Lake, is there an issue or issues that you would say Democratic women feel are more important than their Republican counterparts?

Ms. LAKE: The number one issue that's been a big difference between Democratic and Republican women is the war in Iraq. Democratic women were the first to turn against the war in Iraq. They've been solidly against it. And they want the most responsible withdrawal as quickly as possible. Having said that, though, what's very interesting is there's some things that unite women. Women across all parties were very worried about the economy. Women across all parties very interested in health care reform. And 80 percent of the health care voters are women.

NEARY: Congresswoman Granger?

Rep. GRANGER: That's absolutely true. What we focused on in the economy is security and the security that affects women the most. You know, will I outlive my money because I'm going to live so much longer than men? And we still do. You know, have I planned well enough for that? They look at security in the working world. Okay, I have a career, but I just took out three years to have my children. Now I want to go back in the workforce. So there are some issues that women in economic security really look at differently.

NEARY: One thing that we hear a lot about is that a generational shift is going on. So what are some of the differences in terms of women and different generations of women?

Ms. LAKE: We are seeing one major difference between older and younger women. Over-50 women tend to be more focused on women's leadership. They still tend to see a glass ceiling there. They tend to be noting the historic nature, for example, of having a woman run for president. Women, younger women in particular, find the historic nature of a first woman president less compelling. One of the things that's quite interesting is when you look at women's lives, the stage of life that they're in rather than their actual age is more important.

So if you think about it, in a workplace today you can have three 42-year-old women. One may be an unmarried woman who's been on the career track. Another may be a first-time - about to be a first-time grandmother; the average age of being a grandmother is 46. And another may be the mother of an eight-year-old. So these women will have very different concerns based on their stages of life rather than their age.

Rep. GRANGER: I completely agree. It really isn't age. It's where you are in your life. They're also more and more often, because of the cost of health care and because women may outlive the benefits they have, they're taking care of elderly parents. So they're actually doing two roles at the same age because of their caretaking.

NEARY: What about racial and ethnic differences among women and class differences, economic differences?

Ms. LAKE: Well, on the Democratic side, we're seeing major racial and class differences. We tend to see college-educated women voting more for Barack Obama, non-college-educated women voting more for Hillary Clinton. We've also seen enormous racial differences with Latino and Anglo women voting more for Hillary Clinton, African-American women voting for Obama. So I think the point is that women are not monolithic.

Rep. GRANGER: That's absolutely true. And that's why it's one reason that women will be making their decisions on this race later. They'll stay undecided longer. And oftentimes it's the way they react to the candidate. Because issues are similar to women, they're not going to base it on a party, they're going to oftentimes base their votes on likability. Is this someone who understands my issues and seems to want to find solutions to the issues that affect my daily life?

NEARY: And one thing I think you can say too is both parties will battle for women at the end, and it will be the women's vote that will determine who is president in 2008. And we have seen Republican presidents such as George Bush, particularly the first time around, very effectively target women voters with security, with compassionate conservatism. And we've seen Democratic candidates very effectively in the 2006 elections target women voters. But I think one thing we can both agree on is the 2008 president will be determined by the women's vote.

Rep. GRANGER: Absolutely.

NEARY: Representative Kay Granger is a Republican from Texas. She is national co-chair of Women for Mitt Romney; and Celinda Lake is president of the Democratic polling firm Lake Research Partners.