LIANE HANSEN, host:
President Bush will deliver his last State of the Union Address tomorrow night amid tight security in the nation's capital. He will appear before a joint session of Congress at a time of economic instability - not only at home but around the world.
With us now to preview the president's speech, and to talk about his legacy, is presidential historian Michael Beschloss.
Welcome.
Mr. MICHAEL BESCHLOSS (Presidential Historian): Hi, Liane.
HANSEN: What do you expect to hear from the president at this moment in his presidency?
Mr. BESCHLOSS: Well, he knows two things. One is that this is probably almost the last time this many people will be paying attention to him because it's all now going to go to the presidential campaign and then, finally, to who is ever president next year. And the other thing is that this is his last chance, really, as president, in a big way, to appeal to history. So what we're probably going to hear is a version of his administration, which is intended to not only make current Americans but future historians think well of him. And also, in a political way, he is the head of a party - the Republicans - he'd like to see them win this year. You'll probably hear a few things that are designed to help them do that.
HANSEN: Is that what the country wants to hear?
Mr. BESCHLOSS: I think that will probably be proven, at least, this fall. But what they want to hear probably from him is that he gets it. If this is someone who shows that he knows that there are deep economic problems and that a lot of people in this country are very unsettled by some of the decisions he's made in foreign policy, I think that can only help.
HANSEN: How do you think he perceives himself, his administration, his own legacy?
Mr. BESCHLOSS: He is very much of the mind that he is going to be an example of the presidents in history who were very controversial and unpopular in their time but whom history has borne out. He has often used the example of Harry Truman, who went back to Missouri in 1954, poll rating is in the low 20s. Nowadays, most Americans, most people in my line of work, think of Truman as a great president because, with retrospect we think that he made the decisions that helped us to win the Cold War. I'm not arguing for George Bush's position, but he would argue that future generations of Americans will say that he made tough unpopular decisions that helped to win the war on terrorism and even the war in Iraq. I'm not saying that he's going to turn out to be right, but who knows?
HANSEN: If he is looking toward future generations, how might it affect plans he's going to make for his final year? I mean, he still has a year left.
Mr. BESCHLOSS: That's right. Well, one thing that presidents do in their last year is they begin to think about their legacy. But he is almost been defiant in saying I'm perfectly happy to be unpopular because I am so certain that I will be borne out by history. In many ways, that's a good thing because you don't want a president to be a captive of public opinion. But at the same time, it can sometimes lead him to ignore certain things the public is thinking.
HANSEN: What about internationally?
Mr. BESCHLOSS: That's something that he would argue that, in the long run, you know, foreign countries will say thank God George Bush drew the line against terrorism in 2001 and followed that strategy. And this is the fascinating difference between history and current events. You can argue that one-rounder, flat in real-time. Thirty years from now, we will know how it all turned out. We'll be able to have a definitive judgment.
HANSEN: So he basically is saying, this is what I've done, I've finished. I think I did a good job. Thanks a lot. See you?
Mr. BESCHLOSS: I think that but with a few little tweaks that say don't think of this as unsuccessful presidency. Think of this as a presidency that could be the prelude to another Republican term. Like every president, I guarantee you, he is desperate to have a successor elected who is a Republican.
HANSEN: Michael Beschloss, you have written about many presidents over the years. A daunting task, I might add. But how are you going to write about Bush's presidency as a historian? Have you already given any thought to it?
Mr. BESCHLOSS: Well, it would probably have to be in about 30 years, and I hope I'm still around and writing by then. And particularly, when you have a president who is this controversial, because what you want to do as a historian is to wait until a president really passes from politics into history, where you could look at it not so much through the political lens of the emotions that all of us feel right now, but look at it later on with some dispassion and also knowing how the story turned out. We will know how the war in Iraq ended, we will know what the state of the war on terrorism is in 30 years, whether it's ended or not. That will help us much more clearly to deal with this president.
HANSEN: When you listen to the speech, what would surprise you?
Mr. BESCHLOSS: What would surprise me would be if this is a president who basically says public opinion has moved against me, at least as far as the polls say, and therefore I'm going to make big concessions to that by moving to the center domestically, you know, maybe doing things in the world that are very different from the first seven years. This is not a president I would predict we would see that happen with.
HANSEN: Presidential historian Michael Beschloss.
Thanks a lot.
Mr. BESCHLOSS: Thanks, Liane.