STEVE INSKEEP, host:
Any election in Taiwan can affect that country's future status with Mainland China. Some political parties want independence, some don't. And last weekend, Taiwan's voters chose a party that is not pushing for independence. The opposition Nationalist Party won big in legislative elections and is favored to retake the presidency this spring. That reduces the chance of conflict with China, the kind of conflict that could involve the United States.
NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports from Beijing.
ANTHONY KUHN: Speaking after the election, President Chen Shui-bian called it the worst defeat in his Democratic Progressive Party's 22-year history, and he resigned as party leader to take responsibility. Taiwanese voters were clearly more concerned with their faltering economy and corruption within the ruling DPP than with Chen's efforts to achieve formal independence for the island.
Chang Yan Sher(ph) is a Taiwan expert at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
Mr. CHANG YAN SHER (Taiwan Expert, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences): (Speaking in foreign language)
KUHN: The result of this election showed that voters don't want to follow the directions set by Chen Shui-bian, he says. In this sense, the danger in cross-strait relations has decreased. And it should be good for peace and stability in the Asia Pacific region.
The Nationalists have pledged to ease restrictions on travel and investment with the Mainland. They now hold a two-thirds majority in the legislature and their popular presidential candidate, Ma Ying-jeou leads the DPP's Frank Hsieh in the polls.
But included in the March presidential elections is a controversial referendum on whether Taiwan should apply to join the United Nations as a separate entity from China. Beijing considers this as a step towards formal independence. So far, it has refrained from any saber rattling, realizing that it would probably backfire.
Mr. SHER: (Speaking in foreign language)
KUHN: If we had gotten excited or overreacted, it would have helped Chen, says Chang Yan Sher. It's a good thing we didn't.
Lin Jung Bin(ph) is a China expert at Tamkang University in Taiwan. He says that Washington's warnings to Taipei have undercut popular support for the referendum.
Mr. LIN JUNG BIN (China Expert, Tamkang University): (Speaking in foreign language)
KUHN: Last year, U.S. officials publicly warned Taipei nine times - a historic high. The result was that support for maintaining status quo increased sharply in opinion polls while support for Taiwan's independence dramatically decreased.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Taipei last month about the referendum.
Secretary CONDOLEEZZA RICE (U.S. Department of State): We think that Taiwan's referendum to apply to the United Nations under the name Taiwan is a provocative policy. It unnecessarily raises tensions in the Taiwan Strait and it promises no real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage.
KUHN: But the U.S. is also worried about China changing the status quo.
Admiral Timothy Keating, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, said here on Tuesday that the U.S. is concerned about new weapons that China is developing.
Admiral TIMOTHY KEATING (Commander, U.S. Pacific Command): We are concerned about development of long-range cruise and ballistic missiles. We're concerned about anti-satellite technology. We're concerned about area denial weapons. And we want to be very straightforward with our Chinese colleagues that increased transparency can yield(ph) greater trust.
KUHN: These weapons, analysts say, could be used to deny U.S. forces access to the area around Taiwan in any conflict with China.
Anthony Kuhn, NPR News, Beijing.