STEVE INSKEEP, host:
It's MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Steve Inskeep.
RENEE MONTAGNE, host:
And I'm Renee Montagne.
Voters in New Hampshire love to say they don't care what happened in Iowa, and they proved it last night. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won an unexpected victory over Barack Obama. As for the Republicans, John McCain came out on top.
We're going to get some analysis now from two of our regulars. Chris Lehane worked in the Clinton White House. He's a veteran of Al Gore and Wesley Clark's presidential campaigns. He joins us on the line from San Francisco.
Good morning.
Mr. CHRIS LEHANE (Democratic Political Consultant): Good morning. How are you doing?
MONTAGNE: Fine. Thank you.
Mike Murphy has run campaigns for both John McCain and Mitt Romney, two men of the hour. He joins us from Manchester, New Hampshire.
Hello.
Mr. MIKE MURPHY (Republican Political Consultant): Good morning.
MONTAGNE: Mike, let's start with you and your former clients. Not long ago, many had written off Senator John McCain. He was broke. His advisers were quitting right and left. How much of a comeback was this for McCain?
Mr. MURPHY: Well, it was a terrific comeback. I think the lesson of last night on both parties is be careful about writing anything off. John McCain was originally the front-runner in the Republican Party but he got into some trouble. He basically took it all on his own shoulders, and it was him going town hall to town hall in New Hampshire in a hard-fought contest. He came back just to win a huge upset. So now, he'll go out of here with a lot of momentum. And he and Mitt Romney, who waged a tough campaign, didn't quite make it, are going to face each other in Michigan next week - which I think will become the finals between them. And I think if Romney doesn't win there, he'll be in real trouble. If McCain does well in Michigan, he'll have a lot of momentum, and he'll be able to zoom forward probably as the new kind of regular Republican front-runner.
MONTAGNE: Of course, McCain, people will remember, won big in New Hampshire in 2000, didn't go on to win the nomination. Can he go all the way this time even if he does win the next couple of primaries?
Mr. MURPHY: Well, one difference we got is the calendar now. It's a lot more compressed than it was then. Many of us think that if we'd had that calendar in 2000, McCain would have been nominated. So if he does well in Michigan, and it's a state he won last time and he has a lot of momentum on New Hampshire recharging his campaign, he does well next Tuesday, I think he's in very good shape to be the nominee.
MONTAGNE: Chris, let's turn to you and the Democrats. Hillary Clinton has been more accessible to voters since Iowa and more forceful in pointing out her differences with Senator Obama. Was that - those things - the things that made the difference for her?
Mr. LEHANE: Look, I think, on both sides in the Iowa and in particular in the Democratic side, it's not surprisingly it came down to character and, you know, you look at the exit polls and clearly voters in New Hampshire thought highly of Senator Clinton particularly in terms of her experience, particularly in terms of the sense that she was up for the job. And I think what they're really looking for is some way to connect with her. And on Monday you had that moment, that moment when she teared up when asked about the question about - you know, how challenging the campaign trail is. And to me that moment served as the bridge to really connect her with the voters of New Hampshire and allowed her to really catapult herself in the race where people really race her off. It was an amazing, amazing comeback.
MONTAGNE: You know, some of the polls had Obama winning New Hampshire by as much as 13 percent. How did they get it so wrong?
Mr. LEHANE: You know, it's a really good question. Everyone was surprised in the numbers last night. And no one really seems to have an answer to it. And I just fundamentally think that the people of New Hampshire take a great deal of pride in the fact that they're independent group of folks, and I also think you just cannot underestimate what that moment on Monday really meant to folks.
Mr. MURPHY: I'm terrified that candidates are going to be crying now to drop off a hat. I agree, that was a huge catalyst. I have a theory about it. None of us really know. Everybody is shocked. One of the great ironies will be I think a lot of people may claim in the Clinton campaign they knew all the time. And nobody was more surprised than they were last night, but that people didn't want to fire her.
When - it was a national media thing if she lost in New Hampshire and campaign was totally over and the view of the average voter before it might have began and the crying, and the residual affections for the Clintons and the Democratic world here in New Hampshire might have combined to create the kind of a perfect moment, because very few of us in politics have seen that kind of a movement so late in the primary, and it was a huge shocker.
MONTAGNE: Well…
Mr. LEHANE: Absolute, absolute stunning event.
MONTAGNE: …to both of you, how does the race changed in both parties now, going into the next few primaries?
Mr. MURPHY: Oh, she survives. That's the big news. Her campaign was teetering on complete destruction, donor revolt internal strife. Now, she can go to her donors, raise some money. She has a total credibility to run. The media will give her a bounce. She can even lose, excuse me, lose South Carolina, looming on the calendar ahead of her and keep fighting. I still think Obama wins in the end, but it's going to be a heck of a race for the nomination on the Democratic side.
And on the Republicans, McCain is back in business. Romney is fighting for his life. Maybe he'll be the Hillary Clinton comeback next year in his home state of Michigan. We don't know yet. And then the Republican nomination will get a lot clearer.
MONTAGNE: Chris Lehane, let's just turn to you and ask you about John Edwards who, obviously, came in second in Iowa, but a distant third here - there in New Hampshire. He says he sees it for the long haul, but can he afford to be?
Mr. LEHANE: That's the key question. At the end of the day, money is what keeps these campaigns afloat. A campaign will stand on the race as long as it has money. And, you know, there's a real question here whether there will be enough oxygen to sustain his campaign going forward through the financial perspective. He has taken matching funds and he does have the support of a number, a very big and important labor organizations, so he has the potential to stay in. But, again, at the end of the day, is he going to have money to go on beyond South Carolina particularly when you get to February five and you have to spend millions and millions of dollars on paid television.
MONTAGNE: Chris Lehane is a Democratic political consultant based in San Francisco and speaking to us from there. Mike Murphy is a Republican political consultant, and he spoke to us from New Hampshire.
Thanks to both of you.
Mr. LEHANE: Thank you.
Mr. MURPHY: Thank you.