STEVE INSKEEP, host:
It's MORNING EDITION from NPR News. Good morning. I'm Steve Inskeep.
RENEE MONTAGNE, host:
And I'm Renee Montagne.
The long presidential campaign now has its first real results. Iowa caucus goers delivered commanding wins to Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee. For Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney, two front-running candidates who spent lots of time and resources in Iowa, the results were disappointing.
On the line with us to read the tea leaves are two seasoned political strategists. Mike Murphy has run campaigns for both Mitt Romney and John McCain. He joins us from Manchester, New Hampshire.
Good morning.
Mr. MIKE MURPHY (Republican Political Consultant): Good morning.
MONTAGNE: And Chris Lehane. He worked in the Clinton White House. He's a veteran of Al Gore and Wesley Clark's presidential campaigns, and he joins us from San Francisco.
Hello.
Mr. CHRIS LEHANE (Democratic Political Consultant): Hey, good morning.
MONTAGNE: Mike, let's start with you because Mike Huckabee wasn't too well known just a few months back. Looking ahead in New Hampshire, can he turn this win in Iowa to a nationally viable candidacy?
Mr. MURPHY: I believe he probably can, but that is the million-dollar question. What he'll have to do now is raise a lot of money and start winning in other states - in New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina that follow on the calendar that don't - especially in the case of Michigan and New Hampshire - have as many Christian conservative voters.
Iowa is a little bit atypical that way so a Christian conservative candidate like Huckabee kind of starts on second base, but he's a very good candidate and the huge win he had will give him a huge boost. He will be able to raise some money on the Internet fast and get more and more competitive. If the election were held today, he'd probably win South Carolina.
So I would say it's now a three-way race with Mike Huckabee right up there with a resurgent John McCain and Mitt Romney, who, while wounded, still has resources and now has to win in New Hampshire and Michigan, I think, to have a realistic chance at the nomination.
MONTAGNE: Now, Chris Lehane, let's turn to you for the Democrats. How transforming is Barack Obama's victory last night?
Mr. LEHANE: I think under, you know, any analysis it was very transforming both the win and the speech that he gave last night in Iowa was very impressive. His results were impressive across the board, both in terms of how he performed well with virtually every voting bloc, and in particular, I think, the number of people that turned out in Iowa. You got a record turnout in Iowa at 239,000 or so people, including a significant number of independents, a significant number of first-time caucus goers. And that certainly suggests that he had an enormous, inspiring factor out there.
MONTAGNE: It also suggests something went wrong with Hillary Clinton's campaign.
Mr. LEHANE: Well, I think there's two ways to look at it. One way to look at it is it's just a very impressive win by Senator Obama. He really did inspire people. The fault(ph) of it is, is that, obviously, it was pretty clear that this is a change election. He ran with a very clear and concise change message. Senator Clinton ran on with a message that was predicated on experience and using that experience to translate to change, and I think Senator Barack Obama's message really cuts through, particularly in Iowa.
Now, we turn to New Hampshire, obviously, where Senator Clinton has a little bit more familiarity. The Clintons, obviously, go way back in New Hampshire. They have a good ground game there. They've a lot of support in the state, historically. But will the wave coming out of Iowa be unstoppable, and is Obama going to move on because there was such a transforming victory, or will she be able to break the wave in Iowa - in New Hampshire.
MONTAGNE: And back to the Republicans, Mike Murphy, Rudy Giuliani - now, he didn't really campaign in Iowa, but in fact, in a sense paid for that. He lost big. How does he stand now?
Mr. MURPHY: I think he's in big trouble. I believe the truth is Rudy was too clever by half about Iowa. They didn't talk about it much but they put a lot of resources in there. They matched Mitt Romney in staffers for most of the campaigns. They spent a lot of money on mail, but Rudy didn't personally campaign there as much. And I think their plan was to do, you know, the proverbial quote better than expected. Instead, he got beat two to one by Ron Paul.
So the Rudy strategy which has been, to use a baseball analogy - lose the first five innings and then roar back - is a strategy that's never worked before, and I think he's going to have real trouble executing it because he's not looking particularly strong in New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina or Nevada. He's trying to wait for Florida at the end of the month. He's going to find this a long, difficult way with a real hard fundraising environment if he doesn't start winning soon. So I think Rudy's campaign is in very big trouble.
MONTAGNE: Okay. I want to ask the two of you for the one-line answer to this. Do you care to wager bet on what happens in New Hampshire on Tuesday? Mike?
Mr. MURPHY: I think Obama is going to soar and win the nomination and win - she has five days to stop him, but I don't think she can. And I think you're going to see a battle royal between John McCain and Mitt Romney with Huckabee now in the hunt in New Hampshire. McCain has the edge but it could go any way.
MONTAGNE: Chris?
Mr. LEHANE: I think that Obama has a big wave, and it will be interesting to see whether the historically, independent people of New Hampshire are able to be independent within the five days that we have. And then on the Republican side, it just seems to me that the Huckabee win really is a huge boost for McCain who could potentially be the last man standing on the Republican side.
MONTAGNE: Thanks to both of you for joining us.
Chris Lehane is a Democratic political consultant based in San Francisco. Mike Murphy is a Republican political consultant. He spoke with us from New Hampshire.