"Unemployment Hits 5 Percent on Low Job Creation"

STEVE INSKEEP, host:

Ford suffered from a slowdown in consumers spending. And today we get another clue to how much the economy may be weakening.

NPR's Jim Zarroli is waiting for the latest unemployment report.

JIM ZARROLI: The unemployment report is always scrutinized carefully by economists and business leaders - and that's especially true this time around. The mortgage crisis and the ensuing credit crunch already have the economy by the ankles.

If there is a recession in 2008, as some economists fear, the evidence will start to show up in the nation's payrolls. Already there are signs that hiring is down. The online job site Monster.com said its employment index fell last month to its lowest level in almost a year. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell for the fourth straight month in December.

And a report co-produced by the forecasting group Macroeconomic Advisers and the payroll company ADP said private employers added about 40,000 jobs last month - less than what's needed to keep up with population growth.

Most economists believe government and private employment rose by a meager 70,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate will inch up by a tenth of a percentage point to 4.8 percent.

This is more than just a numbers game. Wall Street is anxiously awaiting another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. And a weak employment report will make it more likely that Fed policymakers will approve one.

Jim Zarroli, NPR News, New York.