GUY RAZ, Host:
From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Guy Raz.
RAZ: The answer to the question is quite often China. And in a recent poll taken by CNN, nearly 60 percent of Americans said they regard China's wealth and economic power as a threat. And that anxiety seemed to fuel some of the news coverage this week when video surfaced of a test flight of a prototype Chinese stealth fighter.
RAZ: China's military showing off its new stealth fighter jet.
RAZ: Known as the J-20, a rare glimpse of the future of China's air force.
RAZ: And it happened while Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is in China.
RAZ: China, in a show of military bravado, has staged its first test flight of a stealth fighter jet.
RAZ: And so perhaps in a bid to relieve some of the anxiety about China's rise and its intentions, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressed the issue yesterday.
S: This is a critical juncture, yes, but I would say to my fellow Americans, this is not a time to fear for the future.
RAZ: Now, as I mentioned earlier, there are conflicting viewpoints about America's position in the world and China's rise. In a moment, we'll hear from someone who says stop panicking.
B: This Time It's For Real."
M: I think in the aftermath of the financial crisis, it's become clear that we're going back to a world in which, although America will remain a preeminent power probably for a while yet, it has competitors again.
RAZ: And you predict that as a result of this, that the relationship between China and the U.S. will actually get worse in the next year.
M: But I think also the Chinese are beginning to feel that, well, you know, our time is coming and that it may be a bit time for us to be a little more assertive. The China-U.S. relationship has always had elements of friendship and cooperation and rivalry. And I think the rivalrous elements are becoming more emphasized now.
RAZ: But it still is a - very much a mutually dependent relationship. China depends on the U.S. market for its products. The U.S. depends on China, of course, for borrowing. The conventional wisdom on that relationship is that if it is managed properly, both sides win. So why is that wrong?
M: I think the political aspect is that a rising power like China, particularly a China that has a very different political system from that of the United States and that has a sense that it has been humiliated in the past, inevitably they are going to be more assertive in ways that we find uncomfortable.
RAZ: So specifically, what would a more assertive Chinese power do?
M: I think the way they see it is they gradually grow Chinese power and military capabilities at a time when America is increasingly under financial strain and is cutting back on its military or is thinking of cutting back on its military and that that balance of forces changes over 10, 20 years and more, which means that they don't have to have a direct confrontation because people just gradually get used to the new situation. Now, it may not be that smooth or that easy.
RAZ: As you know, there have long been comparisons between where America is now and where Great Britain was at the end of the 19th century, and I wonder if those comparisons are somewhat hyperbolic.
M: However, I think where the parallel is interesting is that, I mean, it does suggest that all dominant powers have their period. And then whether through its replacement by another power or by a multipolar system, whether through war or by peaceful means, generally, no power is dominant forever.
RAZ: Gideon Rachman, thank you so much.
M: Thank you.
RAZ: Thomas P.M. Barnett is the chief analyst at Wikistrat and a former Pentagon analyst. He's just back from China. And it's fair to say, he's got a different perspective.
M: I always say if you want to understand an America like a China, invite everybody, and I mean everybody in the Western Hemisphere to come live in the continental United States. Would we have rich people? Lots of them. Would we have a big middle class? Big middle class. Would we have six, 700 million interior rural poor? Yes. And that would feel like China.
RAZ: So you, I mean, so you would concede that China won't sort of overtake the United States economically, maybe militarily anytime soon, but that it could conceivably happen in the next 40 or 50 or 60 years.
M: And I think if we accept the fact that they just, you know, they're not going to turn into America on our timetable and stop being so stung that 40 years after Nixon goes to China, they're still Chinese, I think we can live with them the next 20 years. And actually getting through the next 20 years with them cooperatively, collaboratively is not only a good idea, it's absolutely essential when you consider a global middle class aspiring to a lifestyle that the planet cannot sustain if we use old resource models.
RAZ: It seems pretty clear that China won't necessarily fill that role as a sole superpower but rather become another pole of power along with the U.S. I mean, hasn't that already started to happen in a sense?
M: First half of the 20th century, that octet and a few others killed a hundred million people. We've created the system for these people to rise, and now we seem uncomfortable with the fact that we're not going to be the sole pole anymore in the system. And we don't seem to know how to ask anybody else's help.
RAZ: Thomas Barnett, thank you so much.
M: Thanks for having me on.