ROBERT SIEGEL, host:
What might the Obama administration do about all this? We're going to hear now from two men who were involved in U.S. Mideast diplomacy during the Clinton years. Martin Indyk is co-author of the article "Beyond Iraq: A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East" in the current issue of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to Israel and also assistant secretary of state, and he has recently published the memoir "Innocent Abroad" as well. Welcome to the program once again, Martin Indyk.
Dr. MARTIN INDYK (Director, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution): Thank you, Robert.
SIEGEL: And coincidentally, Martin Indyk's book is one of three reviewed by Robert Malley in the article "How Not to Make Peace in the Middle East" in the current issue of the New York Review of Books. Mr. Malley worked on the National Security Council staff in the Clinton White House and later, as a special assistant to President Clinton. Welcome back to the program.
Dr. ROBERT MALLEY (Director, Middle East and North Africa Program, International Crisis Group): Good day to you.
SIEGEL: So far, U.S. policy on the Israeli offensive in Gaza seems to be to accuse Hamas of bringing about Israeli retaliation, urging Israel to take care not to hit civilians, and to press for a durable and sustainable cease-fire. First, Martin Indyk, is the Obama administration likely to do anything different, and should it do anything different?
Dr. INDYK: No, I think that the first requirement is to get a cease-fire in place. And I think that the current secretary of state is setting that up together with the international community, which is also massing around this idea of a U.N. Security Council resolution that, I think, may be even introduced as early as Monday that will be focusing on trying to get at least a call from the international community for a cease-fire and hopefully, pressure on Hamas to stop its rocket attacks, which I think would lead to the Israelis stopping their attacks.
SIEGEL: Robert Malley, do you expect or hope for a different position or different attitude from the Obama administration on the bombing of Gaza?
Dr. MALLEY: Well, I think the real question is, what would the Obama administration find once it comes into office several weeks from now? And the situation in Gaza could range from a cease-fire, which obviously would be ideal, to a war of attrition that continues, or to a situation which Israel has decided it had to occupy Gaza to take care of the situation. Those are very distinct scenarios that the Obama administration may have to face, but we won't know that until January 20th.
SIEGEL: I want to hear from both of you, since you both were active in the Clinton years. The people who will likely be leading Mideast diplomacy in the Clinton years will be led by former first lady, that is, the Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton, and many other veterans of those efforts. Mark, first of all, do you think that the group that was involved in Mideast peacemaking efforts in the '90s thinks that, if you could keep on doing the same sort of things, it could work this time? Is there a sense that dramatically different approaches are required, or that there were inherent weakness in the old approaches?
Dr. INDYK: Well, there were definitely inherent weaknesses in the old approaches. The reality is that we tried for eight years and ended up failing, and so there's obviously a need to rethink that and see how we can learn from those lessons. It's something I just tried to do in this book you mentioned. But we should also bear in mind that we've seen this movie before, and although it's always good to try to come up with new ideas, it's hard to reinvent the wheel in this conflict. It's been raging for a long time, and all the ideas in a sense have been tried.
The - it's interesting to note that the Clinton administration came in, in 1993 with the crisis over Hamas, provoked by a decision by then Chief of Staff Ehud Barak, chief of staff of the army - he is now defense minister - to evict Hamas terrorists to Mount Lebanon. And the first thing that Secretary of State Christopher had to do was to mediate an arrangement which enabled the parties to come back to the negotiating table.
And so, in that sense, I think President-elect Obama has made clear he wants to pursue Israeli-Palestinian peace from day one. He's going to have to try to get a cease-fire in place and then see whether that creates an opportunity to get back to the negotiating table, perhaps in circumstances where Hamas is somewhat humbled, where it becomes possible to garner support for an effort to resolve the conflict, because we've been again reminded in such a bloody way of the consequences.
SIEGEL: Rob Malley, Martin Indyk says you've seen this movie before. You think that fresh, new approaches are required?
Dr. MALLEY: Well, I make a couple of observations. The first is, I think we have to realize this has been 15 years that we've tried a peace process, and we've tried it not simply under one configuration, but almost every configuration imaginable - with strong Israeli and Palestinian leaders and weak Israeli and Palestinian leaders, but who were determined, it seemed, to reach a deal with a U.S. administration that was prepared to go very far in intervening, and a U.S. administration that was prepared to stay on the sidelines, with Arab countries involved or not involved. So, it's not a matter of tinkering because we've tinkered quite a bit. I think there is a need now to reflect deep as to why things have gone so dramatically wrong in the last 15 years.
The second point I'd make is, the situation the Obama administration is going to face is going to be dramatically different from that which President Clinton faced when he took office or even when he left office in the year 2000. We don't have now the kind of Palestinian entity leadership that's capable of negotiating and reaching an agreement because of everything that has happened to it and that it's done to itself. And the notion that now you could have a negotiation between Palestinian leadership, the one that we want to deal with, Mahmoud Abbas and his colleagues, which have been so thoroughly discredited by what's happened now as they sit and see what's happening to their people in Gaza and can't lift a finger. I think we have to question how we're going to put this back together, with what parties and with what ideas so that we don't find ourselves negotiation between Israel...
SIEGEL: Mm-hmm.
Dr. MALLEY: And the Palestine leadership that can't speak for its people.
Dr. INDYK: Rob, if I can just jump in here, I think that there is one significant difference beyond the ones that Rob Malley talked about, which is that the Arab states are prepared to be more active than they were in any time during the ages that we were involved in it. And they have a real need to do so, partly to save their own credibility in these circumstances, but also to help salvage the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas, because if it's not possible to show that the way of reconciliation, negotiation, compromise and ending the conflict works, then Hamas, Hezbollah and the Iranians supporters are going to be the ones that rule the day in the Middle East, then, and we will rue the day when that happens.
SIEGEL: Rob Malley, do you agree that there's potentially more support in the region for peacemaking efforts?
Dr. MALLEY: I think there may be more support, but unfortunately, by parties that have lost the more credibility at home. I think Egypt, Jordan and others, again, because of what's happened over the last few years and most dramatically over the last week, look more feckless than they did in the past. And I think one of the unfortunate consequences from an American standpoint of what's been happening is that Hamas, even if it's militarily degraded, which I assume it will be, very likely will come out of this politically emboldened and strengthened, because however hit it is, it will be able to tell its people in the region, we withstood the most ferocious onslaught, and we're still standing.
SIEGEL: You thinking of - as Hezbollah did...
Dr. MALLEY: Exactly.
SIEGEL: After the events in southern Lebanon. Robert Malley and Martin Indyk, thanks a lot for talking with us today about what might be the challenge and the policy adopted by the Obama administration in the Middle East.
Dr. MALLEY: Thank you.
Dr. INDYK: Thank you.