ROBERT SIEGEL, host:
Looming ahead after Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida is the big time. On February 5th, we'll witness the closest thing we've ever seen to a national primary, 22 states, and among them, California, New York, Illinois. There is not a luncheonette on Earth big enough to reach those voters. So what does the shrewd campaign strategists do? Well, we're going to ask two of them, Republican Dan Schnur and Democrat Donna Brazile. Welcome to both of you.
Mr. DAN SCHNUR (Republican Political Strategist): Thank you.
Ms. DONNA BRAZILE (Democrat Political Strategist): Thank you.
SIEGEL: And Dan Schnur first, how would you describe the turn that the campaigns have to make at this point?
Mr. SCHNUR: Well, this is an entirely different kind of challenge for the candidates in both parties - no more living rooms, no more coffee shops, no more diners, and less possibly as a backdrop as a TV studio, if you will, to reach tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of voters all at once. This is a moment that they should have been preparing for months ago because if you step off the Iowa and New Hampshire stage onto a national landscape and haven't done months and months of organizational spadework, you're in deep trouble no matter how much momentum you have behind your campaign.
SIEGEL: Donna Brazile, you agree with that assessment of where the race stands now?
Ms. BRAZILE: Dan is absolutely right. The candidates must pivot from retail politics to a campaign where they now have to go to cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, St. Louis, Atlanta, Newark, and talk to a much larger, much more diverse and a much more complicated set of politics. In Iowa, you practice understanding agriculture policy, perhaps economic policy in New Hampshire. But now, these candidates will have to be well-versed in some of the regional, local, political trends that may ultimately help them get their message across to the crucial voters they need to turn out on, of course, Super Duper Tuesday.
SIEGEL: What do you then? Do you contest all or most of the states? Or do you pick your states? Do you decide, if you're Obama, you'll win Illinois anyway and Hillary Clinton will win New York, so make California a showdown? What do you do?
Ms. BRAZILE: Well, because of the rules on the Democratic side, candidates cannot really afford to cherry-pick too many states. So Obama clearly is going to compete for delegates in New York. If he gets 15 percent or more of the vote, he will be able to, of course, accumulate delegates. Hillary will, of course, compete for delegates in her home state of Illinois. So what you'll find is the candidates cherry-picking a little bit in terms of where to put additional resources. Do you put them in primary states that might offer more delegates or do you put it in caucus states that require a lot more money in terms of organizational ability to get people out to the poll? Or do you leave it up to the local and statewide leaders to do all of the get-out-to-vote spadework?
SIEGEL: So Dan Schnur, where are we going to see the candidates now? Are they going to be on the tarmac all the time, flying in and out of major markets?
Mr. SCHNUR: Well, that's exactly right. When several states, including California and New York and several others, moved their primaries up to February 5th, it was with the hope that we would get to see more of the candidates. And we did. We got to see a lot more of them in the spring and summer of 2007. But from this point forward, it's tarmac news conferences and very quick drive-bys because there isn't a human being in the world who can cover 21 or 22 states, all in the course of seven days.
SIEGEL: People would remark, Donna Brazile, in either Iowa or New Hampshire, for that matter, on the size of the crowd that would turn out to hear Clinton or Romney or McCain or Obama. Nowadays, it seems to have a crowd that's worth mentioning going into February 5th is to gather tens of thousands of people somewhere.
Ms. BRAZILE: And actually, to get them out to the polls, especially when you will not have as much money. Look, it's likely to cost upwards of $20 million just to advertise in all of the major markets. That's a good buy to get your message across.
SIEGEL: $20 million between now and February 5th?
Ms. BRAZILE: Between now and February 5th. So look at where the money is being spent, of course, where they will spend additional time to see how they intend to come up with the 2,025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
SIEGEL: From here on in, on February 5th, is it no longer about building momentum, it's about counting delegates here - from here on in, Dan Schnur?
Mr. SCHNUR: Well, it's really about both. In both parties, you've gotten to a point where it looks like we're going to have a very sustained primary race probably not being decided on February 5th, at which point all the campaigns have to start on delegate counts. But the way you get those delegates is the same way you gather votes, is with message and momentum.
SIEGEL: And they're convincing some of those super delegates, for example, that this is a winning candidate, this is somebody who can bring your party back to the White House?
Ms. BRAZILE: Well, I'm one of those…
SIEGEL: You're a super delegate?
Ms. BRAZILE: I'm one of those super delegates. And I must tell you, as a neutral observer in this race, it's very exciting to see three viable candidates compete for the presidency. Some of us, of course, have taken positions. But majority of super delegates will allow the voters to make this decision. And at the end of the day, our role is to help bring the party together.
SIEGEL: Do both of you think that this actually could still be a contest in either or both parties after February 5th? Donna Brazile?
Ms. BRAZILE: Yes, I do believe…
SIEGEL: Really?
Ms. BRAZILE: …because of the tightness of this race. Look, I think that Nevada may become a tie-breaker, South Carolina a circuit breaker. But we won't know anything until after February 5th. If Obama is able to capture his delegates and Hillary capture her delegates, and perhaps Edwards maintains some delegates, then I think this race will go another week or two.
SIEGEL: On the Republican side, Dan Schnur?
Mr. SCNHUR: I'd say, if anything, the Republican side is even more at loose ends. See, I look at February 5th now as sort of the political equivalent of the NCAA basketball tournament. We have a final four, and every team or every candidate has a must-win game in order to qualify for the tournament. McCain won his must-win in New Hampshire, Romney needs to win his in Michigan, Huckabee needs to win his in South Carolina, and Giuliani needs to win his in Florida. So we'll have a better sense of the field on February 5th. Because there are so many states that - and so many delegates at stake, I think it's going to be very hard for one candidate to claim a clear-cut victory, at which point we'll continue to head down the trail to the next round of states.
SIEGEL: Well, Republican strategist Dan Schnur at NPR West and Democrat Donna Brazile in Washington. Thanks to both of you for talking with us.
Ms. BRAZILE: Thank you.
Mr. SCHNUR: Thank you very much.