SCOTT SIMON, host:
All Democrats vote in South Carolina today. Republican candidates competing down to the wire for Florida's primary on Tuesday.
The Democrats aren't campaigning there because the national party has stripped them of their delegates because they moved up the primary day. Now, on the Republican side, the most recent polls show John McCain and Mitt Romney going back and forth in the lead, followed by Rudolph Giuliani, who used to be ahead of them, then Mike Huckabee.
Lance DeHaven Smith is a political scientist at Florida State University in Tallahassee. He joins us from a member station there, WFSU.
Professor, thank you so much for being with us.
Professor LANCE DeHAVEN SMITH (Political Science, Florida State University): Glad to be here, Scott.
SIMON: What's your analysis of why it seems that Mayor Rudy Giuliani is limping a bit towards the finish line now? He's certainly been campaigning assiduously there and there are lots of New Yorkers in Florida.
Prof. SMITH: There are a lot of New Yorkers in Florida. Fairly 10 percent of Floridians are originally from New York State. But most of those New Yorkers are registered Democrats.
SIMON: And what about the effect of negative stories that have been coming out about Mayor Giuliani that have to do with his marital life or allegations about his administration in New York?
Prof. SMITH: Well, they certainly hurt him. And you have to understand in Florida, the electorate is skewed a bit toward the senior citizens, toward the retirees. And they're about 35 to 40 percent of the voters. And they are pretty conservative in terms of family values, social issues.
SIMON: St. Petersburg Times' poll this week has John McCain a couple of points up on Governor Romney. A lot of Senator McCain's votes, at least so far at this primary season, have come from independents. In Florida, as I understand it, only registered Republicans can vote. Is he a bitter fit for some Florida Republicans than he might be in other states?
Prof. SMITH: He's taken positions that have been difficult for him outside of Florida. His moderate stance on immigration, I think, will appeal to, of course, to non-Cuban Hispanics but the Cubans as well. He's been concerned about global warming. We have a lot of concern about the environment here in the state. And that's true of Republicans, as well as Democrats. We're impacted by hurricanes. We're worried about rising sea levels.
Now, Romney…
SIMON: Yeah. Where is his strength coming from?
Prof. SMITH: Well, he's from the Midwest, and we have about 20 percent of the Florida residents originated in the Midwest, in Michigan, Illinois, Ohio. They tend to be Republican. They're fairly well-off.
The problem for Romney is going to be in the Central Florida area where you have Wall Street Journal Republicans, the people who are pro-business and want small government. Whether he can appeal more to them than McCain is, I think, the big question. And I'll be looking at the Orlando area and the Tampa area to see how the vote turns there because I think that's really the hinge on which the election will turn.
SIMON: And Governor Huckabee? I don't want to overlook him.
Prof. SMITH: Well, Governor Huckabee has got an evangelical base in Central Florida, just north of Orlando. I don't mean to say that he is exclusively drawing votes from the evangelical Christian right. But the problem for him is he's got two very capable competitors who are quite strong on these economic issues. Huckabee is geographically isolated into Central Florida in large part, and demographically. It's just - there's nowhere for him to go because the competition is too tough.
SIMON: Professor DeHaven Smith, what issues have been capturing most attention in the campaign?
Prof. SMITH: Well, in Florida, the big issue has been the economy. The state has a very fragile economy in many ways. And we have experienced a dramatic drop in the housing values. Everybody in the country has had this housing value bubble that's burst. But in Florida, the bubble was bigger and the fall is a lot further. And together, the gas taxes - the gas prices, the weak tourism, the home value bubble-bursting - all of those things have converged to greatly weaken Florida's economy.
SIMON: And is that influencing some of the choices people are making for candidates?
Prof. SMITH: I think it's helped Romney enormously coming into Florida. You know, if you've discounted the economic issue, McCain would be the odds-on favorite, hands down. But as the economy deteriorated that issue came to the top of the policy agenda, and there Romney was well positioned as a businessperson who's been successful in business. Definitely come up with new ideas and some of them are appealing to particular constituencies, and that's helped him a lot.
SIMON: Lance DeHaven Smith, professor of public administration at Florida State University. Thank you so much.
Prof. SMITH: You're welcome.
SIMON: And you can read up in what's at stake today in South Carolina's Democratic primary and see results as they become available at npr.org/elections.